Modeling COVID-19 across Idaho
Scientists in Idaho and Washington have joined forces to develop a model to assist in identifying effective mitigation strategies to reduce the impact of COVID-19 on Idahoans. To help Idaho Gov. Brad Little’s Coronavirus Working Group make data-driven policy decisions, the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare (DHW) and five universities were asked to develop a model to assist in identifying effective COVID-19 mitigation strategies. The strategies would help by minimizing the number of infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in Idaho. The model could also be used to get a rough estimate of resource needs such as ICU beds, ventilators, and personal protective equipment (PPE).
DHW collaborated with the University of Idaho, Boise State University, Lewis-Clark State College, Idaho State University, and neighboring Washington State University. Dr. Holly Wichman, director of the Institute for Modeling Collaboration and Innovation at the University of Idaho, coordinated model development by modelers, mathematicians, biostatisticians, and other experts with support from DHW’s Division of Public Health. The consortium presented several mathematical models and visualizations to DHW for consideration.
A model developed by Dr. Benjamin Ridenhour, assistant professor at the University of Idaho’s College of Science, Department of Mathematics, was ultimately determined to be the most useful for the purposes of the Governor’s Coronavirus Working Group. The model allows the user to enter different values for each parameter, based on the best information available at the time. It is based on a standard model in which people move between four specific categories related to the virus including being susceptible, exposed, infected, or recovered. Dr. Ridenhour’s model provides additional precision by considering different presentations within those categories, such as being asymptomatic or symptomatically infected. The model is also dynamic, rather than a static model. It accounts for time-dependent changes, considers the degree of connectivity between cities, and the contact rate between people based on factors such as age.
The model used by the Governor’s Coronavirus Working Group is providing outputs based on assumptions and parameters from the most recent literature and research available. More data and information are needed to really understand this disease and how it might impact Idaho. After reviewing different scenarios, the model shows that mitigation efforts targeting a reduction in contact rates, such as social distancing and targeted efforts at older adults, are effective strategies to slow the spread of the virus that causes COVID-19. If mitigation measures are stopped, the model predicts a second wave of infections will occur unless testing and contact tracing capacity increases so that infections can be identified and contacts isolated.
Read story from University of Idaho here and see the COVID Model Overview here.